COMPLEXITY ANALYSIS AND EARLY-WARNING

COMPLEXITY ANALYSIS AND EARLY-WARNING PATTERN DESIGN FOR NATIONAL ENERGY SECURITY------FROM THE PERSPECTIVE OF COMPLEX ADAPTIVE SYSTEM
FANG SHUQIONG
China Center for Energy Economics Research, Xiamen University
Xiamen, Fujian Province, 361005, China
Email: fsq@xmu.edu.cn

Abstract： Nowadays issue on national energy security has become the subject which Chinese government and the society paid attention highly. Obviously national energy security system has characteristics of multitudinous influence factor, strong relationship between variables and existing mutual game phenomena. Complex adaptive system theory provides a new mentality and points out a new direction for us to analyze this kind of question. Therefore, in view of complexity on national energy security, this paper attempt utilizing important theoretical achievement of complex science—Complex Adaptive System theory—its research concept and analysis method, and study the issue on early-warning of national energy security. Firstly the complexity of national energy security has been analyzed from the perspective of complex adaptive system. Then it has been established the pattern design of national energy security early-warning based on complex adaptive system. In addition, one kind of research tools of CAS—NetLogo—has been introduced. Finally the further research work has been pointed out.
Keywords: Complexity, Early-warning Paradigm, National Energy Security, Complex Adaptive System

1 Introduction
As basic strategic resource and basic production factors of economic system—energy, which can be said that once appear quantitative shortage or structural imbalance, would inevitably affect development of national economy and society directly and obviously. As the biggest developing country and the second largest energy producing country and consumption country of the World, as well as the second largest carbon emission country next to USA, issues on China’s energy security have become the topic which academia and governments at home and abroad, even social public have paid attention together. (Detlef van Vuuren, 2003; Eric D.Larson, 2003; James P.Dorian, 1999; B. S. John Byrne, 1996; B. S. a. W. W. John Byrne, 1998; Jonathan E.Sinton, 2000; Kang Wu, 1995; Nakata, 2004，30 ; Paul Crompton, 2005; Wu, 2003; Yemane, 2004; Zhong, 2003)
Under such background, carrying research on theory and method of national energy security, specially early-warning research of security situation according to non-renewable energy (mainly for coal, petroleum, natural gas), have quite important theory significance and realistic urgency. In view of complexity on national energy security (Fang Shuqiong, 2007), this paper attempt utilizing important theoretical achievement of complex science—Complex Adaptive System theory—its research concept and analysis method, and study the issue on early-warning of national energy security.
The theory of complex adaptive system (Complex Adaptive System, CAS) was advanced by American scholar John Holland(Holland, 1993; J.H.Holland, 1995) in the special course in 1994, when Santa Fe Institute tenth anniversary. CAS theory has provided a new mentality for the people to analyse question and to point out a new direction. It has aroused research enthusiasm of each domain researchers, who apply positively the CAS theory in respective research area (Phillips, 1997; Rungtusanatham, 2001; Sorenson, 2001; Wildberger, 1997). Thus, it will be a significant research work of analyzing early-warning system of national energy security from the perspective of complex adaptive system. This paper’s study was started from this motive. Firstly the complexity of national energy security has been analyzed from the perspective of complex adaptive system. Then it has been established the pattern design of national energy security early-warning based on complex adaptive system. In addition, one kind of research tools of CAS—NetLogo—has been introduced. Finally the further research work has been pointed out.
2 Complexity analysis of national energy security
We separately analyze national energy security system from time dimension and space dimension, discover it is one kind system of taking on evolutional behavior of self-organization and hetero-organization, in this system contains a series of agents, which have their own purpose and initiative, and it has complex system’s characteristic which various agents can “study” and “accumulate experience” in the interaction, and can change their own structures and behaviors to adapt the change of “circumstances”. Therefore, when research early-warning of national energy security, should attach importance to processing of its complex, cannot deoxidize the complex to the simplicity, and simply process the complex regard as simplicity, but we must processing complex regard as complexity, carry on simplifying premise in keeping the complexity root. So it must be deal with and researched issue on early-warning of national energy security using the theory and method of complex adaptive system.
The national energy security system includes the production enterprise and the consumption public of energy from macroscopic analysis. In the planned economy time, the production and ration of energy were regulated by the country, the relation of energy production and consumption is also simple relatively. But in the market economy time, the energy production and consumption will be regulated by the market, then the production enterprise and the consumption enterprise of energy will all have its right to independence to decide quantity and structure of production and consumption. In this process, the government department should exert the function of national macroeconomic control, still should carry on the essential standardizing and control to environmental protection of the entire process from the production to the consumption of the energy. This is the inevitable requirement of the government’s function transformation in the guidance of Scientific View of Development. In addition, universities and research institutions should carry on the effective R&D and technological innovation in the government’s guidance of technology policy and enterprises’ technology demand. Obviously, analyzing the national energy security system from the perspective of complex adaptive system, production and consumption enterprise involved are similar to independent agents, which affect and adapt mutually in energy system. Meanwhile, these agents fall under the government department’s macroeconomic control and restriction of environmental protection laws and regulations, as well as the effective promotion of research institutions’ R&D and technological innovation. These agents form a complex adaptive system in the process of their own development and mutual gaming, agents involved in the system including:
◇The energy production enterprise——the energy production enterprise involved the national security interests (emphasizes non-renewable energy industry)
◇The energy consumption public——each kind of energy consumer: the industrial department (primary industry, secondary industry, tertiary industry) and the consumption of inhabitant lives
◇Governmental department——national macroeconomic control, and regulation and control of environmental protection
◇Research institutions——R&D and technological innovation for production and consumption of energy
The energy system composed by various agents is as shown in Figure 1. Obviously, agents in national energy security system possessing the special characteristic of adaptability, initiative as well as self-learning, manifests one kind of together evolution of system agent.

Fig.1 Relation Model for Agent of National Energy Security
▽The different energy consumption public/agent can choose different energy forms to consume according to own developmental demand, and carry on combined consumption.
▽Each energy production enterprise/agent may decide its production and productivity according to own resource, the developmental strategy and the market quotation.
▽The governmental department/agent may formulate a series of system arrangement and prompting measure based on the national macroscopic economic planning and the social development goal. Synchronously, constitute corresponding restrictive measure by environmental effect appraisal, environmental carrying capacity and environmental protection goal.
▽Different agents of energy production and consumption may adjust separately the type and quantity of respective energy production and consumption according to the governmental guidance and the request of environmental protection.
▽Research institutions carry on the R&D and technological innovation in government’s guidance of technology policy and enterprises’ technology demand.
The above each behavior manifests a series of decision-making behavior, the decision-making agent has the rationality, and it is the anticipated behavior. Various decision-making agents contain own inherent law of development, also received the influence of random factors, their behavior result will cause certain macroscopic result, and manifest the special characteristic of a kind of complex adaptive system. In this complex adaptive system of national energy security, the energy consumption agent’s motivation is that, in order to industrial economic development, must have to consume the energy, simultaneously the enhancement of standard of living also must consume the energy. And the energy production agent’s motivation is in order to pursue the enterprise benefit to realize the profit. Moreover these agents’ behavior of consumption and production fall under the government department’s macroeconomic control and restriction of environmental protection laws and regulations. Simultaneously, research institutions’ R&D and technological innovation can produce the technical positive effect to production and consumption of energy, and can reduce the consumption to energy and pollution to environment. Obviously, the various agents’ interaction (gaming) in system induces the system’s evolution.
3 Pattern design of national energy security early-warning based on CAS
For the research on early-warning of national energy security, traditional methods of early-warning are indescribable such game interaction. In order to ascertain and identify the root of evolution of national energy security posture, we need to analyze the game behavior of various agents and its equilibrium, also need to carry out the necessary quantitative and simulation game, and further quantitative analysis of Game need to borrow the idea of CAS (in fact CAS is generated on this basis). Thus, it has obvious advantages that researching early-warning of national energy security with CAS theory, and would help us discover nature of the problem through the representations.
The concept of national energy security has experienced the process of continuous development and enrichment since it was proposed. On the background of the sustainable development model is generally ratified by international society in the present stage, the traditional concept of national energy security has been endued with some new connotations. We think that the security does not only indicate the agent is in the condition of avoiding the danger or threat, but also should possess the ability of avoiding the danger or threat (Fang Shuqiong, 2007). As the forecited analysis, the question on national energy security shows the trait of complex adaptive system. Therefore, in order to describe various behaviors agents of national energy system objectively, and simulate its whole development situation, so that can make the response to the energy crisis effectively and promptly, we attempt to construct the early-warning system of national energy security based on CAS. (as shown in Figure 2).


As can be seen from Fig.2, the constructed national energy security early-warning system based on the CAS is composed of several functional modules, such as a series of development goals to energy system→system analysis→CAS simulation system of national energy security early-warning→emerging early-warning analysis→signals identification system of early-warning→alarm and absolving alert system of national energy security, etc. With the evolution of national energy security posture and changes of its external environment, relevant parameters (mainly including development goals of national energy system, description of adaptive agent, evaluation index system and standards, etc.) have been updated to form a dynamic circulatory system to accommodate such changes. Obviously, the idea of "emergence" early-warning is the special feature of national energy security early-warning based on CAS, the module of CAS simulation system of national energy security early-warning is the basis for realizing "emerging" early-warning, which is the core module of architecture to early-warning system. Combined with the complex adaptive analysis of national energy system aforementioned, the structure and process of this module is shown in Fig.3.


Obviously, the CAS simulation model system of national energy security early-warning is the repeated interactive circulation system, which involves correlative behavior agents (production agent, consumption agent, government department agent and research institutions agent) in energy system and their environment (here we regard energy market as environment). In this simulation system, the mutual gambling of correlative agents in micro level and their adaptive behaviors to environment emerge the evolution of national energy security system in macro level. This emergence phenomenon may described by the change of supply and demand balance’s guarantee degree, energy environment carrying capacity, as well as the correlative indexes of alert and alarm aura, thus realize gambling and simulating the influence and restriction relations of agent’s behavior to energy system and its subsystem. In this foundation, should adjust the CAS agent’s behavior based on the response of energy system and the correlative information feedback, and carry on the regulation to various subsystems and energy system, to realize the system’s dynamic early-warning.
4 One kind of research tools of CAS—NetLogo
NetLogo is a programmable modeling environment for simulating natural and social phenomena. It was authored by Uri Wilensky in 1999 and is in continuous development at the Center for Connected Learning and Computer-Based Modeling. It is particularly well suited for modeling complex systems developing over time. Modelers can give instructions to hundreds or thousands of "agents" all operating independently. This makes it possible to explore the connection between the micro-level behavior of individuals and the macro-level patterns that emerge from the interaction of many individuals.
NetLogo is the next generation of the series of multi-agent modeling languages that started with StarLogo. It builds off the functionality of our product StarLogoT and adds significant new features and a redesigned language and user interface. NetLogo is written in Java so it can run on all major platforms (Mac, Windows, Linux, et al). It is run as a standalone application. Models can be run as Java applets inside a web browser.
5 Conclusion
This paper has proposed to apply the theory and method of complex adaptive system in the pattern design of early-warning of national energy security, and we believe it as a new attempt. Its innovation lies in improving the traditional pattern of early-warning system on energy security, the thought of “emergence” early-warning has been introduced from the perspective of microscopic adaptive agent. Moreover, the paper has analysed complexity between each correlative agents of national energy security, and has pointed out it just was various agents’ interaction (gaming) which induced national energy system’s evolution, thus “emerge” out situation changes in national energy security from macro level. In addition, one kind of research tools of CAS—NetLogo—has been introduced.
In the research on concrete national energy security early-warning, so long as the basis of actual situation of movement and development on national energy system, introduces the related goal variable and the early-warning index and the corresponding reference frame and critical limit value, the early-warning system may be implemented by program quickly. Like this, it may fully exert the formidable superiority of computer in data processing and simulation. As to the pattern design of early-warning on national energy security in the paper, how to select a series of appropriate early-warning indexes, and insert it to the modeling and simulation process of NetLogo, this is the emphasis of our continued further research.
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